Estimating: Science, Art or a Shot in the Dark? by Arthur Raybold

When I was teaching on Nantucket Island, 30 miles off the Massachusetts coast, we had two doctors on the island: one was a self-admitted Neanderthal, the other a brilliant diagnostician. The latter, Dr. Folger would sit on a bench on cobble stoned Main St. and analyze his patients as they went about their business. Occasionally, he would stop an unsuspecting man or woman and say, "Frank or Lydia, I'd like to see you in my office tomorrow. I believe you have hepatitis." He was almost always right. The other doctor was even more consistent and always left a sponge inside a client before he sewed him or her up.

Fortunately, the estimating of condominium repaints is a more exact science than diagnosing patients down on Main St., especially if a paint manufacturer has written a tight specification for that HOA as opposed to his providing you a boiler plate one. A job walk where the trades have a chance to question details of the specifications is also essential to an objectively arrived at proposal. Often on job walks a painting estimator is able to point out an inconsistency, a forgotten item that requires paint or an alternative approach that may save time or materials.

A site map, which is often missing  from the specification, is a very important tool in helping the estimator comprehend the magnitude of the job, determine the scenario for production and perhaps save many hours by discovering there are three or four building types, precluding the measuring of say 20 buildings.

Sophisticated software is available to all contractors so that there are unit costs for every conceivable item to be painted. The estimator must be very focussed when he goes out to do his take-offs. His main tools are a measuring wheel that records linear feet whether running along the ground or up the side of a building and a clipboard with a list of items that correspond to those on his computer back at the office. A garrulous estimator who mixes gab with idle seniors (I happen to be one of these) may discover too late that his numbers are too high or low.

There is not room enough here to print the number of items to be estimated on a typical HOA repaint, but here are a few examples of items that can be easily overlooked: trellises, planters, bollards, street lamps, ornamental iron, vents, ladders and saw cuts (when elastomerics is to be applied).

Protecting landscaping with plant-friendly coverings, renting lift equipment because ladders won't reach, determining where masking and spraying are appropriate, estimating drying time between two finish coats and planning on coming back some Saturdays to paint the unfinished parts of doors are some elements that must be considered when pricing a job.

Back at the office, after all the quantities of items from the clipboard have been transcribed onto the computer and computations made and gross profit added, the experienced estimator will do two things: he or she will go into his/her data base and look at similar jobs bid over the past say 10 years to confirm that the figures fall within the parameters; and second, he or she will, if time allows, let these numbers marinate for a few days. An estimator with a painter's background has a sixth sense, just like Dr. Folger, and he or she will feel good or uncomfortable about that number in a few days. That is why I have often stated in this column that there are advantages to the HOA the more time a contractor is given to bid (a week is too short; two weeks is very good).

Another variable which must be considered is that all paint crews are not equally productive on multi-family work. If Raymond and his highly productive crew are available, the final number will reflect expected production efficiencies. Quality is even better for just as in baseball, where the faster-paced pitcher experiences fewer errors from his fielders who are far more focussed and alert than when some soporific slinger is on the mound so too does the highly organized and motivated foreman get a better product form his crew.